Inside your download / Edition 01
See what you will work with.
A record of your reasoning across 40 original exercises and two mock sessions, with specific mistakes to revisit.
- Workbook PDF
- Worked explanations, assumption changes and two mock sessions.
- Practice log + completed example
- Record your setup, result, error type and next attempt in editable CSV files.
Before you start: Basic algebra and familiarity with elementary probability. Use paper first; a spreadsheet editor is useful for the CSV practice log.
View the exact package inventory (5 files)
probability-trading-edition-01.pdfcompanions/practice-log.csvcompanions/practice-log.example.csvcompanions/README.mdREAD-FIRST.txt
Build the model before reaching for a formula. This workbook develops a sequence of original probability problems, explained solutions and follow-ups that change the assumptions.
It is for candidates who know basic algebra and want structured practice in conditioning, counting, expectation, dependence, waiting, simple continuous probability and decision reasoning.
What you work through
Twelve chapters connect forty original exercises with complete solutions, two extended mock sessions and an editable practice log. The examples include signals with different base rates, dependent observations, finite stopping rules, simulation checks and toy quoting decisions.
The explanations show why a tempting approach fails and what to change when the information changes. Questions are original educational material, not leaked or reconstructed employer assessments.
A sample decision
A ticket pays ten with probability 0.3 and zero otherwise. At price four, its expected profit is negative one. If you can observe the outcome before buying at the same price, the optimal rule changes: buy only the ten-unit outcome, for expected profit 1.8 before observation.
The distribution has not changed. The available decision rule has. The workbook asks you to identify that distinction before calculating.
Read before choosing
The free PDF preview includes complete opening chapters with worked examples and exercises. No email or account is required to read it.
This is introductory probability and decision practice. It is not a stochastic-calculus textbook, a complete statistics course, an options-pricing manual or a guarantee of coverage for a particular employer. Toy payoffs are fictional units, not investment recommendations.
If your main gap is building and defending a project, compare the research lab. For a free starting point, solve the base-rate example and record your first attempt in an error log.
Inside the book
A sequence you can work through.
- A model before a numberp. 4
- Conditioning changes the roomp. 8
- Counting without losing the experimentp. 12
- Expectation without enumerationp. 15
- Risk and dependencep. 18
- Waiting and stoppingp. 21
- Continuous reasoningp. 24
- Estimation and uncertaintyp. 26
- Toy markets and informationp. 29
- Simulate to investigatep. 32
- Two original mock sessionsp. 35
- Repair your practicep. 38
Read before choosing
Open the actual pages.
11 sample pages, including complete explanations. No email address or account required.
Open the PDF previewPreview page 4 of 11. Use Enlarge page for a closer view. When the page is focused, use left and right arrows to change pages.
